My research lies at the intersection of international trade and macroeconomics. I bring the dynamics of growth and adjustment emphasized in macroeconomics into quantitative trade models, and the spatial structure emphasized in trade into macroeconomic analysis. My empirical work uses micro and spatial data to identify adjustment across firms, workers, and places. A growing part of this agenda studies how geopolitical power, conflict, and fragmentation reshape trade policy, market access, innovation, and welfare.
Current papers in dynamic trade, growth, labor-market adjustment, and geoeconomics. Published work and research in progress are collected on the full research page.
How much of the gains from trade come from the creation of new products?
EU integration increased market access, product entry, R&D, and trade. I develop a dynamic general-equilibrium model combining Eaton–Kortum trade with Romer-style innovation to quantify static and dynamic gains from integration.
How large are the long-run costs of persistent geopolitical fragmentation?
We develop a multi-sector, multi-region model with dynamic knowledge diffusion to study geopolitical decoupling. Fragmentation reduces trade and the international diffusion of ideas, producing substantially larger and more uneven welfare losses than in conventional static trade models.
Why does trade adjust slowly after shocks?
A model of staggered sourcing decisions rationalizes the gap between short- and long-run trade elasticities. Applied to the US–China trade war, adjustment frictions substantially amplify welfare losses and alter the short- and long-run incidence on third countries.
How does geopolitical power change optimal trade policy?
We combine cross-country evidence on military power and tariffs with a quantitative trade model in which governments choose trade policy under the shadow of conflict and geopolitical alignment. Power changes disagreement payoffs, tariff incentives, and the feasibility of peaceful cooperation.
How do local labor markets adjust to export growth, and how does that adjustment differ across environmentally risky and sustainable activities?
Using Brazilian customs, administrative, and census microdata, we estimate persistent local employment responses to export shocks and document different short- and long-run adjustment patterns across environmentally risky and sustainable activities.
How do local labor markets adjust dynamically to foreign demand shocks?
We combine an instrument for export exposure based on foreign demand with a spatial framework and local labor-market evidence from Indonesia to trace the dynamic responses of employment, income, and welfare.
I have worked on economic policy from inside government and multilateral institutions, advised decision-makers, and written for broader public audiences alongside my academic research.
My policy work has centered on translating quantitative economics into decisions: diagnosing policy problems, building empirical and structural evidence, and communicating the resulting trade-offs to policymakers and the public.
This has included work on trade reform in the Brazilian government, research and policy analysis at the IMF, WTO, World Bank and IFC, and op-eds, interviews, and public-facing economic writing.
Worked directly on economic policy and trade reform, including a flagship quantitative assessment of trade liberalization across Brazilian local labor markets and advice to senior government decision-makers.
More than a decade of research and policy experience across major international economic institutions, spanning trade, macroeconomics, private-sector development, labor markets, and geopolitical fragmentation.
Prepared quantitative analysis, policy reports, presentations, and decision support for government officials, institutional leadership, and policy teams.
Written and spoken about economic policy for non-technical audiences, with work and commentary appearing in international and Brazilian media.
Theory, policy, handouts, and Python data notebooks.
Growth, ideas, capital, labor, and macroeconomic dynamics.
Detailed discussion notes and mathematical derivations.
Statistical programming, inference, and regression.