Economist · International Trade · Macroeconomics

Carlos Góes

Dynamic Trade, Spatial Macroeconomics & Geoeconomics

My research lies at the intersection of international trade and macroeconomics. I bring the dynamics of growth emphasized in macroeconomics into quantitative trade models, use spatial and micro data to study adjustment across places and firms, and examine how geopolitical power and fragmentation reshape trade policy, market access, and welfare.

Research · CV · Google Scholar · GitHub

Selected research

Current work

Quantitative models and empirical evidence on trade, growth, adjustment, and geoeconomic power.

01
Trade · Growth · Innovation · WTO Essay Award 2024

Trade, Growth, and Product Innovation

How much of the gains from trade come from the creation of new products?

EU integration increased market access, product entry, R&D, and trade. I develop a dynamic general-equilibrium model combining Eaton–Kortum trade with Romer-style innovation to quantify static and dynamic gains from integration.

Market access → innovation → growth
02
Dynamic Trade · Supply Chains

Dynamic Adjustment to Trade Shocks

with Junyuan Chen, Marc Muendler, and Fabian Trottner

Why does trade adjust slowly after shocks?

A model of staggered sourcing decisions rationalizes the gap between short- and long-run trade elasticities. Adjustment frictions substantially amplify welfare losses from the US–China trade war.

Sourcing frictions shape the path of adjustment
03
Trade Policy · Geoeconomics

Trade Policy and Power Politics

with Philip Economides and Freddie Papazyan

How does geopolitical power change optimal trade policy?

Cross-country evidence on military power and tariffs motivates a quantitative trade model in which geopolitical alignment, coercive power, and conflict outside options shape tariff choices.

Power changes both tariffs and the scope for cooperation

Working papers & research in progress

Trade · Growth · Fragmentation

The Impact of Geopolitical Conflicts on Trade, Growth, and Innovation

with Eddy Bekkers and Ben Sutton

Trade · Labor · Environment

Exports, Labor Markets, and the Environment

with O. Conceição, G. Lara Ibarra & G. Lopez-Acevedo

Trade · Intermediation

Trade Rerouting: Theory and Evidence

with Jose Moran

Spatial Macro · Inequality

The Economic Geography of Top Incomes

County specialization and the geography of the top income distribution.

Fiscal Policy · Spatial Data

Tax Multipliers in the United States: a Regional Perspective

with Edoardo Briganti and Victor Sellemi

Publications

Refereed articles, chapters & policy research

View complete research record →

Policy & public work

Research beyond academia

I have worked on economic policy inside government and international institutions, advised senior decision-makers, contributed to trade-reform work, and written for broader public audiences. I view research, policy analysis, and public communication as complements rather than separate activities.

GovernmentSenior Economic Advisor, Office of the President of Brazil · trade reform and applied policy analysis
Multilateral institutionsIFC / World Bank Group · World Bank · WTO · IMF
Public communicationOp-eds, interviews, public speaking, and research translated for non-technical audiences
Teaching

Courses & materials

Media & public engagement

Research in public debate