I am a spatial economist whose research agenda lies on the intersection between international trade and macroeconomics; I describe it as “Dynamic Trade and Spatial Macroeconomics.” I am embedding the dynamics of growth emphasized in macroeconomics into canonical trade models and incorporating the spatial dimension emphasized in trade models into macroeconomics. In my empirical work, I combine well-identified partial equilibrium effects using spatial data to inform estimates of general equilibrium effects. I use spatial data to answer questions about growth, trade, and inequality.
I am on the job market in the academic year 2023-2024 and I am available for interviews.
You can find my CV here.
Job Market Paper
Trade, Growth, and Product Innovation. (Job Market Paper)
Abstract: Can trade integration induce product innovation? I document that countries that joined the European Union (EU) started producing more product varieties, investing more in R&D, and trading more compared to candidate countries that did not join at a given horizon. Additionally, I show that a plausibly exogenous increase in market access increases the probability of a given country starting production of and exporting a given product. To rationalize this reduced-form evidence, I propose a new quantitative framework that integrates the forces of specialization and market size. This is a dynamic general equilibrium model of frictional trade and endogenous growth with arbitrarily many asymmetric countries that nests the Eaton-Kortum model of trade and the Romer growth model as special cases. Key results are analytical expressions to decompose: (a) gains from trade into dynamic and static components; and (b) growth and welfare into “Romer” and “Eaton-Kortum” parts. In this framework, the product innovation growth rate increases with higher market access. Finally, a quantitative version of the model suggests that: (a) the EU enlargement increased its long-run yearly growth rate by about 0.10pp; and (b) dynamic gains can account for between 65-90% of total welfare gains from trade.
- Draft article.
- Presentations (past or scheduled): UCSD Macroeconomics Seminar; 2023 Southern California Graduate Conference in Applied Economics; UCSD Global Economy Seminar.
Carlos Góes is the founder of Instituto Mercado Popular, a São Paulo-based think tank. He has previously worked as Senior Economic Advisor at the Office of the President of Brazil and as a researcher at the International Monetary Fund, the World Trade Organization, the World Bank, and U.S. think tanks.
His work has been featured in global outlets such as the Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, El País and Le Monde. His research spans over different topics (including trade, economic development, and income inequality). Góes has been named one of the “30 persons every investor should follow” by Infomoney, a Brazilian finance magazine, and is an economics columnist for O Globo, a major Brazilian newspaper.
In 2016, he founded Instituto Mercado Popular, which focuses on designing evidence-based public policy marrying the goals of social inclusion and fiscal responsibility. The Institute’s research has been used in Brazilian congressional committees as official grounds for debate and decisions, as well as quoted in the national and international press.
Góes is a PhD candidate in Economics (UC San Diego), holds a MA in International Economics (Johns Hopkins SAIS), and a BA in International Relations (University of Brasilia). A coding enthusiast, he works in Python, Stata, Eviews, LaTeX, R, Julia, and Matlab.